A FORECAST FOR THE 21ST CENTURY BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN
After the debris of the European power is cleared in the 20th century, as well as what is left of the Soviet Union, one power remains standing and overwhelming powerful. The power is USA.
USA is economically, militarily and physically the most powerful country in the world and there is no real challenger to that power.
For past 500years, Europe was center of international Systems, because they controlled the North Atlantic; the main highway to Europe and the entire world
However, in early 1980s, something remarkably happened for the first time in history; trans-pacific trade equaled trans-Atlantic trade. With Europe reduced to a collection of secondary power after the World War II and shift in trade patterns, the control of North Atlantic was no longer key to controlling the world trade.
Whatever country that controlled
both the North Atlantic and Pacific could control the world trade. In 21st
century, the country located on both oceans would control the world global
economy. This put USA at an advantage against any other country in the world.
Also given the cost of building
naval power and cost of deploying it around the world would make the country
with such potential the world leader i.e. USA in 21st century. The
inherent power of USA coupled with its geographical position make the USA the
pivotal actor of the 21st century. That certainly does not make the
USA loved. On the contrary, its power makes it feared.
Therefore, the history of the
21st century will revolve around opposing struggles. One will be
secondary powers forming coalitions to contain and control USA, and the USA
actively preemptively to prevent an effective coalition from forming.
Islamic war is already ending. Russia
is recreating its old sphere of influence and it will challenge the USA. It may
be the last on the great Northern European plain but will be met by US
dominated forces in three Baltic countries- Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania as
well as Poland.
China is the next challenge to
the US with a few disadvantages:
-
China
is an isolated country physically. It has Siberia to its north, the Himalayas jungles
to the eastern part of the country, so it’s not easy for China to expand
-
China
has not been a major naval power for centuries and building a building a navy
requires long time to build ships creates well experienced or trained sailors.
-
China
is inherently unstable. Whenever it opens its border to the outside world, the
coastal region becomes prosperous, but the vast majority of Chinese in the
interior remain impoverished. This leads to tension, conflict and instability.
Powers that may emerge in the middle of the 21st century are;
JAPAN
The third
largest economy in the world and most vulnerable, being highly dependent on importation
of raw materials since it has almost none of its own. With history of militarism,
Japan will not remain the marginal pacific power it has been.
TURKEY
Currently
the 17th largest economy in the world. Most stable in the Arab
region.
POLAND
Its
economy is large and growing
There might be global war
between these above three powers and the USA. Tremendous technical advances
will come out of the war. All sides will be looking for new forms of energy to
substitutes for hydro carbons for many obvious reasons. The need for solar
power, economically the most efficient energy source on earth will increase.
Another major feature of the 21st
century will be end of population explosion. In 2050, advanced economies would
be losing population at a dramatic rate. By 2100, even under developing
economies would have reached birth rates that will stabilize their population.
The entire system of production will shift. This shift will force the countries
into greater dependence on technology- robots will substitute for human labour
and intensive genetic research to make people productive longer. This will
create a major labour shortage in advance economies. They will design laws to
encourage people from developing countries to their country i.e. USA will be
inducing Mexicans to come over to USA. This will make Mexico which is presently
15th largest economy in the world to rise in its rankings and become
an economy power.
USA IN
21ST CENTURY
Present
Facts about USA
-
America
constitutes just 4% of the world population but produces about 26% of all goods
and services consume in the world.
-
In 2007
USD GDP was about $14 trillion compared to world’s GDP of $54trillion i.e.
about 26% of the world economy actually takes place in USA.
-
US
economy is so huge that it’s larger than economies of the next four countries
combined; Japan, India, Germany and Russia excluding China.
So America compared to Japan,
or Germany is largely under populated. If we compare population in proportion to
Arable land, i.e. land that is suitable for agriculture, US has five times as much land per person as Asia, twice as much as
Europe and three times as much as the global average. An economy consists
of land, labour and capital, in case of USA, the nation can still grow. There
is plenty room to increase all the three.
Why
Is US Economy so Powerful?
Answer is military power and
geographical reality as created economic reality.
-
USA Navy controls all the oceans of the world.
Whether it is a junk in Southern China sea or shore of the African coast, a
tanker in Persian Gulf, or a cabin cruiser in Caribbean, every ship in the
world moves under the eyes of America satellites in space and its movement is
guaranteed or denied at will by US Navy. The combined naval force of the rest
of the world doesn’t come close to equaling that of US navy. This means that
USA controls world international trade. It has become the foundation of
American security and wealth.
US – JIHADIST WAR
From late seventies until fall
of Soviet Union, US helped create forces in Afghanistan that could resist
Soviet Union. These forces turned on USA once Soviet Union collapsed. Trained
in covert arts, knowledge about process of USA intelligence, these men mounted
an operation against USA that involved many stages and culminated in Sept 11,
2001.
USA
is historically a war-like country. USA has been at war for about 10% of its
existence. During the twentieth century, USA was at war about 15% of its
existence. And since beginning of 21st century, since 2001, USA has
been at war. War is central to America existence and its frequency is
increasing. It’s built into American culture and deeply rooted in American
geopolitics. USA was born out of war and has continued to fight to this day at
an increasing pace.
USA emerged from the World War
II, not only has the world largest navy but also with naval bases scattered all
over the world. Any sea going vessel, commercial or military from Persian Gulf
to the South China Sea to the Caribbean could be monitored by USA naval, who
would chose to watch it, stop it, or sink it. The combined weight of all worlds
existing fleet is insignificant compared to America naval power.
No
one goes anywhere on the sea if USA doesn’t approve. US
will continue to encourage chaos in the Islamic world, generating animosity
toward America and perhaps terrorist who will attack them in future. The Middle
East still fragmented than ever before. US defeat or stalemate in Iraq or Afghanistan
is the likely outcome and both will appear to have ended badly for America. But
on the broader level, that does not matter to USA as long as the Muslims are
fighting each other; the USA has won its war. The present uprising in the
Middle East is a big plus for America.
Anger does not make history.
Power does and may be supplemented by anger, but it derives from more
fundamental realities; geography, demographic, technology and culture. All of
these will define America power just has America power will define the 21st
century.
The United States is socially
imitated and politically condemned. It sits on the ideological fault line of
international system. As population declines in the 21st century due
to shift in reproductive patterns, the USA becomes the centre for rapidly
redefined modes of social life. You can’t have a modern economy without
computers and corporations, and if you are going to program computers, you need
to know English; the language of computing. On one hand, those who want to
resist the trend must actually avoid American model of life and thought. On the
other hand, those who don’t adapt America ways can’t have a modern economy.
This is what gives America its strength and continually frustrates critics.
Falling population are restructuring the pattern of families and daily lives.
Computers are transforming, simplifying and focusing the way people think.
Corporations are constantly reorganizing the way we work. Between these three
factors Love, reason and family lives daily are being transformed and through
that transformation America is growing.
Old institutions have shattered
but new ones have not yet emerged. The 21st century will be period
in which a range of new institutions, moral system and practices will begin
their first tentative emergence. Half of the 21st century will be
marked by intense social conflict globally.
NEW
FAULT LINES: Areas where conflict might arise in 21st century.
Pacific
Basin –fastest growing in past half century. Two large economies
dominate this region, Japan/China. They depend on this area for maritime trade,
shipping goods to USA and Europe and importing raw materials from Persian Gulf
and rest of pacific. An interruption on flow of activities in this axis will be
catastrophic.
-
Japan, the third largest economy in the world,
and only major industrial power to possess no major natural resources of any
sort, imports all raw materials from oil to aluminum. China too, who greatly
depends on imports because of its growth rate.
-
China sends almost one-quarter of its exports to
USA
-
South Korea/Taiwan also depends on the pacific
oceans for transport of goods and services.
US Navy controls the pacific,
so they rely on the US for their economy well being.
EUROPE
Europe is not an entity, in spite of existence
of European Union, it consist of a series of sovereign nation states. Therefore
in a geographical context, Europe has not become a unified transitional entity
that might be a threat to USA.
The current crisis is been
contained but the Islamic world overall remains unstable. We do not see any
emergent of a regional global Muslim power because of the tension between these
Muslim states. Indonesia, the largest Muslim state in the world is in no position to
assert itself. Same applies to Palestinian, second largest Muslim nation.
They are internally divided and geographically they can’t expand because they
are bracketed to west by Afghanistan, China and Persia to the North and India
to the East.
Other major Muslim nations are Egypt with a population of N80m people,
Turkey 71m and Iran 65m people. Out of the three, Turkey is a major force economically with the 17th
largest economy in the world.
Iran is basically the smallest
of the three but most aggressive. But it has its weakness; trying to protect
his regime from USA, Sunni -Muslims, and anti- Iranian Arabs. Iran is not an
Arab country. Geographically, Iran cannot expand because it has Afghanistan to
East, Russia to the North or towards Iraq which he will be meet by USA forces.
Egypt is the largest country in
Arab world but economically, Turkey is stronger and not located with multiple
directions to which she can move it’s a modern world and located between
Europe, Middle East and Russia.
MEXICO
With a population of about 114m
in 2007 and forecast of 140m in 2050, Mexico is not a small country. As 15th
largest economy in the world as at 2007, Mexico stands to be great in the next
21st century. Although it currently unstable, turn by drugs and
cartels, It can overcome it chaos.
CHINA
One
quarter of the world lives in China and there have been great talk about China
being a global power.
My
Views on China
China is an island not
surrounded by water but by impassable terrain and waste lands that effectively
isolate it from the rest of the world.
To the North are Siberia and Mongolia
steppe
-
Inhospitable and highly settled and difficult to
transverse. To south west are the impossible Himalayas. The Southern border
with Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam is covered by mountains and jungles and to the
East by oceans. Only its western border with Kazakhstan can be travelled by
large number of people. Vast majority of China lives 10000 miles of the coast
populating the eastern part of the country by 1/3 while the other 2/3 been
quite under populated.
-
China is historically not aggressive and only
intermittently opens itself to the world.
-
Both China and Japan relies heavily on exports.
Both have staggering growth rates but faces collapse when the growth rate
begins even to barely slow. Japan bad debt rate in 1990 was about 20% of GDP. China is closer to 40% of GDP. Is new
growth profitable?
China is held together by money not ideology. When there is
economic downturn and money stops flowing, not only will the banking system
spasm, the entire fabric of Chinese society will slander. Loyalty in China is
either bought or coerced.
Chinese regime rest in two
pillars
1. Vast
bureaucracy that operates China.
2. Military
security complex that enforces the will of the state/communist party. The
values of the communist party which is egalitarianism, selflessness, and
service to the people, no longer exist.
Both Japan and China do not
have the military might to confront the US.
Russia is a vast region with
large population, but much power than the vast of Europe. It has two
assets-land and natural resources.
In concluding, USA will still
be the force to contend with in the 21st century.
Table
1
|
||
TOP TEN WORLD ECONOMIC POWERS (GDP).
|
||
Countries
|
(Trillion
USD)
|
|
USA
|
$14.60
|
|
CHINA
|
$10.30
|
|
JAPAN
|
$4.30
|
|
INDIA
|
$4
|
|
GERMANY
|
$2.90
|
|
RUSSIA
|
$2
|
|
BRAZIL
|
$2.10
|
|
UK
|
$2.10
|
|
FRANCE
|
$2.10
|
|
ITALY
|
$1.70
|
|
| Table II |
||||||||||||
TOP FIVE MILITARY WORLD POWERS
|
||||||||||||
Countries
|
Defense Budget
|
Military Personnel
|
AirForce Planes
|
Naval ships
|
||||||||
(Billion)
|
(People)
|
|||||||||||
USA
|
$515
|
1.3m
|
22,700
|
700
|
||||||||
CHINA
|
$60
|
2.2m
|
2,400
|
760
|
||||||||
RUSSIA
|
$43
|
1.2m
|
6000
|
500
|
||||||||
INDIA
|
$33
|
13.m
|
1200
|
145
|
||||||||
UK
|
$53
|
195,000
|
2600
|
140
|
||||||||
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